Since the Politburo meeting in September 2024, the Chinese government has successfully introduced a series of policy measures to boost confidence. Overseas media have paid full attention to it. I noticed a comment in Singapore's "Lianhe Zaobao" is relatively pertinent. I will not quote it one by one here. Interested readers can visit it by themselves (https://www.zaobao.com.sg/news/china/story20241008- 4991185). Here, I only provide some comments and opinions based on personal experience.
The secret recipe that deserves special mention and the most attention is using the central bank to play a front-line role. The central bank has always played the role of a stabilizer as a lender of last resort, making timely statements to adjust expectations when the market fluctuates. This is the first time it has directly provided unlimited liquidity in history.
Unlimited liquidity includes two levels. The first level directly purchases government bonds, disregarding the "Central Bank Law" and becoming a fiscal withdrawal box. The ultimate purpose of the national debt, including the special national debt, is government investment, which can solve development problems and labor surplus problems by stimulating investment and solving the resulting social stability problems. Of course, a large part of it will be used to make up for the 10 trillion fiscal shortfall, pay salaries to public employees, etc. The central bank's purchase of government bonds is equivalent to directly undertaking the government's deficit. Chinese economists still debate whether this is "money printing without anchors." I think this argument is meaningless. The name is not important. What is important is the final flow and role of these funds.
The currency created to repay the government's debt makes the already unrestricted government deficit further unlimited. The funds flowing to the market through investment behavior may solve some social pressures and problems in the short term, but in the end, this part is created out of thin air. The funds will only push prices upward. To put it another way, the decline in purchasing power continues to aggravate the problems of unemployment and instability.
I believe many experts are very clear about the principles and policy deductions, and there is only one possibility to make such a decision at this time - this is the only feasible solution. From the side, it reflects a change in the governance situation, that is, the people have reached the end of their rope, and it is no longer possible to continue to rely solely on propaganda machines to achieve effective mobilization. Therefore, the central bank personally stood up and told everyone to have confidence and continue to consume.
If residents do not consume, the 175 trillion yuan in bank deposits will put huge operating pressure on banks. On the one hand, the central bank is cutting interest rates; on the other hand, loans cannot be extended, and even residents can repay their loans early. Banks have to pay interest to accept deposits, and the room for earning interest margins is getting smaller and smaller. In addition, non-performing loans are increasing due to the economic downturn. Banks are under extreme pressure. But this is not what the public cares about. As uncertainty increases in the future, conservative residents (the majority) will only continue to increase deposits, reduce consumption, and reduce loans. This is deflation.
The second task of the central bank when it comes to the stage is to force out deposits. If interest rate cuts are useless, bubble assets will be created. Central banks provide lending services for capital instruments. This currency creation is extremely creative. It is equivalent to using central bank loans to buy stock assets in an infinite cycle. The upper limit is three 500 billion. A very ridiculous scene is that the financial regulatory authorities on the other side stood up and once again emphasized that credit funds are not allowed to be traded in the capital market.
In the scene where the central bank takes the lead in violating the norms, the emergence of extremely divisive governance concepts, and the empty talk of the National Development and Reform Commission press conference, I see the door of the abyss opening.
从2024年9月的中央政治局会议后，中国政府连续出台了一系列希望提振信心的政策措施。海外媒体都给予了充分的关注。我注意到新加坡《联合早报》的一篇评论较为中肯，在此不做一一引述，有兴趣的读者可自行前往访问（https://www.zaobao.com.sg/news/china/story20241008-4991185）。 在此，我仅根据个人经验提供一些评述和观点。
需要特别提出，也是最值得关注的秘方是把中央银行充当一线角色。一直以来，中央银行都是发挥着最后贷款人的稳定器角色，在市场出现震荡时，适时表态以调整预期。类似这次直接出手提供无限流动性的，还是历史首次。
无限流动性包括两个层面，一层是无视《中央银行法》直接购买国债，成为财政的提款箱。国债，包括特别国债，最终用途是政府投资，通过拉动投资解决发展问题、劳动力过剩的问题，也包括解决因此带来的社会稳定性问题。当然，很大一部分是要拿出来弥补10万亿财政不足，发放公职人员薪资等。央行购买国债相当于直接承接政府赤字。中国经济学家还在争论是否这是“无锚印钞”。我认为这种争论没有意义，名义不重要，重要的是这些资金最后的流向和发挥的作用。用来替政府还债而创造出来的货币，使本来就不受限制的政府赤字进一步无上限，通过投资行为流向市场的资金，短期内或能解决一部分的社会压力和问题，但最终这部分凭空创造的资金只会推动物价上行。换一个角度说，即购买力下降而继续加重失业和不稳定的问题。
原理和政策推演我相信很多专家都非常清楚，而在此时做出这样的决策，只有一个可能——这是唯一可行的解决方案。从侧面反映出一个治理状况的变化，即民众已经到了山穷水尽的地步，继续单靠宣传机器已经无法完成有效动员了。于是，中央银行亲自站出来，告诉大家要有信心，要继续消费。
如果居民不消费，存在银行的175万亿人民币存款会给银行带来巨大的经营压力。一方面，央行在降息，另一方面，贷款放不出去甚至居民提前还贷。银行接受存款要付利息，赚取息差的空间又越来越小，加上经济下行带来的不良贷款上升。银行的压力极大。但这不是民众所关心的，在未来不确定性增加的情况下，保守的居民（占大多数）只会继续提高存款、减少消费、降低贷款。这就是通货紧缩。
央行走到台前的第二个任务就是把存款逼出来。降息明显没有用，那就创造泡沫资产。央行为资本工具提供贷款服务。这种货币创造是极具创意的。相当于可以无限循环地使用央行的贷款来买股票资产，这个上限是三个5000亿。非常荒谬的一幕是，另一边金融监管当局站出来再次强调，信贷资金不得进行资本市场交易。
在中央银行带头违反常规的场景中，出现了极度分裂的管治理念，再加上发改委新闻发布会的空谈，我看到深渊之门正在打开。
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