Recently, various economic-related ministries and commissions in China, including the Bank of China and Two Sessions, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, etc., have held a series of press conferences with the theme of boosting the economy and calling for confidence. The market has compared it to the Song Dynasty when the border guards were summoned to withdraw from the army and return to the court. "12 Gold Medals (Emperor's Order)". We cannot draw any conclusions about the effect, but we can deduce it logically.
What is #China’s macroeconomic situation like? The rapid decline in exports and consumption, which drive economic growth, is mainly caused by the poor business environment and the blow to basic industries.
The deterioration of the business environment includes government interference in business activities, frequent and messy red-headed documents, tax police overreach, and other factors that have dampened the enthusiasm of business owners, causing businesses to shrink.
Basic industries mainly refer to real estate. Since the 4 trillion yuan was issued in 2008, the government has discovered that investment can promote the rapid development of various industries. In the following years, government departments invested through debt-issued currency. On one hand, the scale of debt increased rapidly, and on the other, infrastructure construction and its supporting industries are booming. This has produced two consequences: excessive currency issuance and overcapacity.
The solution to excessive currency is to find a reservoir, capital market, or real economy. China's capital market is a place where interests and power are traded. It is governed by policies and is not a completely market-oriented trading place. After several attempts, the new reservoir can only be a large enough real estate market. Real estate is also part of the government's fiscal funds and infrastructure acquisition. It also faces potential pressure from overcapacity. The gradual increase in housing prices is also based on expectations of rapid economic growth. Under the deliberate guidance of the government, a large amount of private capital poured in, real estate speculators emerged, and real estate developers increased leverage to hoard land and build houses to obtain high profits.
Then, the slogan "Houses are for living, not for speculation" was put forward. The intention was good, to cool down the overheated speculation market, but the Chinese characteristic is that it will die if controlled. Because the braking force was too strong, the capital chain of real estate companies was broken. Seeing that the risks could no longer be effectively resolved, the government could not cover the debts of real estate companies and unfinished buildings, so it had to relax purchase restrictions again. However, confidence and expectations have been shattered. Neither the real estate industry nor the substantial financial market built on it can no longer carry the function of a reservoir.
External dumping, including infrastructure and labor exports, as well as subsidized exports, is the solution to overcapacity. Socialist economics has always criticized capitalist overproduction and foreign economic aggression, but it has also inevitably practiced them. This kind of dumping, regardless of whether others live or die, will inevitably cause backlash and protests in the destination market. This is also the background of the criticism and trade war of the Belt and Road Initiative. Enterprises, as market entities, have become unable to survive without subsidies.
The impact of corporate operating pressure on individuals is salary cuts and layoffs. The decline in profitability leads to a decrease in fiscal revenue. The government is even more stretched, and the people are even more afraid to consume.
In this case, the current prescription is to issue bonds and increase government investment. We can imagine whether these investments are just repeated construction to complete assessment indicators. After all, the current infrastructure level and new energy production capacity have peaked and cannot be improved through capital injection. No matter how much you invest, it will either become a benefit exchange and be robbed or become silent capital and rot. In this process, it will have a certain positive effect, that is, it will solve some employment problems. But this will only be short-lived. When the project is completed without income, it cannot continue to support it.
Put simply, ineffective investment, decreasing exports, and reduced consumption are interconnected and mutually reinforcing in a negative way. These three issues can only be addressed collectively. Yet, it is impractical to address one aspect in isolation and expect it to trigger positive responses in the other two.
There is a possibility that the economy will deteriorate further, leading to worsening employment conditions and declining incomes for people. This could result in companies relocating or shutting down, perpetuating the economic decline in a vicious cycle. The only way to break this cycle is through significant political and economic reforms, such as opening up to new opportunities or facing even more significant challenges. I anticipate observing the outcomes of these changes within a few months.
近期中国的各个经济相关部委，包括一行两会、发改委、财政部、住建部等等一系列以提振经济、呼唤信心为主题的发布会，被市场类比为宋朝时候召唤边关守将罢兵回朝的“12道金牌（君令）”。效果如何，不能妄下定论，但可以逻辑推演。
#中国的宏观经济 状况是怎样一个状态呢？拉动经济增长的出口和消费下降过快，主要是营商环境不佳和基础产业收到打击造成的。
营商环境恶化包括政府部门对商业行为的干涉、频繁而杂乱的红头文件、税务警务的越权等等，打击了企业主的积极性，因而商业萎缩。
基础产业主要就是指房地产。自从2008年四万亿开始，政府发现，通过投资可以拉动各行业快速发展，在之后的那些年，政府部门通过负债发行的货币来进行投资，一边是债务规模快速增长，另一边是基础设施建设及其配套产业蓬勃发展。这就产生了两个后果，一个是货币超发，一个是产能过剩。
货币超发的解决方案，是找打蓄水池，资本市场或者实体经济。中国的资本市场是利益和权力交易的场所，它受政策管理，并不是一个完全市场化的交易场所，在尝试数次之后，新的蓄水池就只能是体量足够大的房地产市场。房地产本身也是政府获得财政资金和基础设施的一环，也是有产能过剩的潜在压力，房价逐渐走高也是基于经济高速增长的预期。在政府的刻意引导下，大量民间资金涌入，炒房团兴起，房地产商加杠杆囤地建房以获取高额利润。
然后就有了“房住不炒”口号的提出，本意是好的，为过热的炒作市场降温，但中国特色是一管就死。由于刹车力到过猛，房地产企业资金链断裂，眼见风险已经无法有效化解，政府也无力为房企的债务及烂尾楼兜底，只好重新放松限购措施。但是信心与预期已经打破，无论是房地产业还是建立于其上的庞大金融市场，都无法再承载蓄水池的功能。
于是，政府又只好再把股市拿出来，希望通过人工或政策牛市提振信心，容纳超发的货币。然而这也很难实现。因前些年对资本市场的管理非常混乱，规则上朝令夕改，利益集团左右着政策走向，有套利离场的就有深度被套的。当新资金进入，只是新老交替，并不会产生更多的资本价值，更不会改善企业经营管理的效率，自然也就不存在股市向上的基本面。
对于产能过剩给出的解决方案，是对外倾销，包括基建和劳动力输出，也包括补贴对外出口。社会主义经济学一直在抨击的资本主义生产过剩及对外经济侵略，它也不可避免地在身体力行。这种不管他人死活的倾销，必然引起目的地市场的反弹和抗议。一带一路备受诟病和贸易战的背景也正是如此。作为市场主体的企业，身在其中，也变得非补贴不能活。
企业经营的压力传导到个体的影响就是降薪、裁员。盈利能力的下降导致财政税收下降。政府更加捉襟见肘，民间更加不敢消费。
在这种情况下，现今开出的药方依然是发债、加大政府投资。我们可以试想，这些投资会不会是仅仅为了完成考核指标的重复建设，毕竟以现在的基础设施水平和新能源产能，已经达到了顶峰，无法再通过资金注入得到提升。无论投入多少，或是成为利益交换被套取，或是成为沉默资本而烂掉。在这过程中，会有一定的良性作用，即解决一部分就业的问题。但这只会是短暂的，当项目完成却没有收益时，也无法继续支撑。
简言之，投资无效、出口下滑、消费萎缩，是相互关联的负增强关系，三个只能同时解决，但从一个环节入手希望拉动另外两个环节进入正反馈，是不现实的。
推演的前景就是，经济进一步下行、就业更差、民众收入继续降低；企业或出走或倒闭；经济继续下行。这样一个恶性循环已然开启。中断它的也只能是靠类似改革开放的重大政治经济变革，也许会创造更大的机遇，也许会遭遇更恶劣的灾难。结果，相信我们将会在几个月内看到。
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